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How many copies did Cosmonautica sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 58k–94k
$160k–$429k after Steam's cut $290k–$660k before the cut
from 1k reviews (Mixed)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Cosmonautica out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Cosmonautica's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 380k–754k
best case 6.9M (Elite Dangerous)
Games like Cosmonautica

The middle of these games

≈ 380k–754k copies

≈ $4.1M–$15.1M after Steam's cut

from ~7k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

Best case: Elite Dangerous at ≈ 5.2M–8.5M copies, ≈ $28.8M–$77.4M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Sci-fi (7 of 8) and Simulation (7 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Space Sim + Space, priced around $20.
The era
The games you compared span 2008 to 2018, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 38 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

X4: Foundations
2018
Est. copies
≈ 911k–1.5M
4.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$12.5M–$33.7M after Steam's cut $22.8M–$51.8M before the cut
$49.99
30k reviews
Mostly Positive
Space SimSimulation
Elite Dangerous
2015
Est. copies
≈ 5.2M–8.5M
15x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$28.8M–$77.4M after Steam's cut $52.3M–$119.1M before the cut
$19.99
107k reviews
Mostly Positive
Space SimSpace
Endless Sky
2015
Est. copies
≈ 346k–562k
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
7k reviews
Very Positive
SpaceFree to Play
X Rebirth
2013
Est. copies
≈ 462k–751k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$3.8M–$10.3M after Steam's cut $6.9M–$15.8M before the cut
$29.99
7k reviews
Mixed
SimulationSpace
X3: Terran Conflict
2008
Est. copies
≈ 181k–294k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$797k–$2.1M after Steam's cut $1.4M–$3.3M before the cut
$15.99
3k reviews
Very Positive
SpaceSimulation
Rebel Galaxy
2015
Est. copies
≈ 409k–665k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$2.3M–$6.1M after Steam's cut $4.1M–$9.3M before the cut
$19.99
8k reviews
Very Positive
SpaceOpen World
Starpoint Gemini 2
2014
Est. copies
≈ 230k–375k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$2.2M–$6.0M after Steam's cut $4.0M–$9.2M before the cut
$34.99
4k reviews
Mixed
SpaceSimulation
Anno 2205™
2015
Est. copies
≈ 309k–502k
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$3.4M–$9.1M after Steam's cut $6.2M–$14.1M before the cut
$39.99
6k reviews
Mostly Positive
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