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How many copies did X4: Foundations sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 911k–1.5M
$12.5M–$33.7M after Steam's cut $22.8M–$51.8M before the cut
from 30k reviews (Mostly Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left X4: Foundations out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including X4: Foundations's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 2.5M–6.2M
best case 22.6M (No Man's Sky)
Games like X4: Foundations

The middle of these games

≈ 2.5M–6.2M copies

≈ $23.2M–$52.9M after Steam's cut

from ~92k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

Best case: No Man's Sky at ≈ 17.2M–28.0M copies, ≈ $284.5M–$764.9M after Steam's cut. A breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Space (7 of 8) and Open World (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Open World + Open World Survival Craft, priced around $60. The breakout hits carry Procedural Generation + Adventure + Open World Survival Craft; a typical game here doesn't.
The era
The games you compared span 2010 to 2021, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Kerbal Space Program
2015
Est. copies
≈ 7.1M–11.6M
1.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$78.6M–$211.3M after Steam's cut $142.9M–$325.1M before the cut
$39.99
146k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
SpaceSimulation
Oxygen Not Included
2019
Est. copies
≈ 4.1M–6.7M
1.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$28.4M–$76.4M after Steam's cut $51.7M–$117.5M before the cut
$24.99
144k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Colony SimBase-Building
Elite Dangerous
2015
Est. copies
≈ 5.2M–8.5M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$28.8M–$77.4M after Steam's cut $52.3M–$119.1M before the cut
$19.99
107k reviews
Mostly Positive
Space SimSpace
Dyson Sphere Program
2021
Est. copies
≈ 2.3M–3.7M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$12.5M–$33.6M after Steam's cut $22.7M–$51.6M before the cut
$19.99
92k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
AutomationSpace
No Man's Sky
2016
Est. copies
≈ 17.2M–28.0M
4.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$284.5M–$764.9M after Steam's cut $517.2M–$1176.7M before the cut
$59.99
415k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldOpen World Survival Craft
Empyrion - Galactic Survival
2020
Est. copies
≈ 853k–1.4M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$4.7M–$12.6M after Steam's cut $8.5M–$19.4M before the cut
$19.99
34k reviews
Mostly Positive
Universe Sandbox
2015
Est. copies
≈ 1.6M–2.5M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$12.9M–$34.7M after Steam's cut $23.5M–$53.4M before the cut
$29.99
32k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
SandboxSpace
EVE Online
2010
Est. copies
≈ 2.5M–4.0M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
39k reviews
Mostly Positive
SpaceFree to Play

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