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wishvane

How many copies did Serious Sam 3: BFE sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 1.8M–2.9M
$14.9M–$40.2M after Steam's cut $27.2M–$61.8M before the cut
from 29k reviews (Very Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Serious Sam 3: BFE out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Serious Sam 3: BFE's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 45.3M–101.8M
best case 813.7M (Counter-Strike 2)
Games like Serious Sam 3: BFE

The middle of these games

≈ 45.3M–101.8M copies

≈ $276.9M–$371.0M after Steam's cut

from ~1.1M reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

Best case: Counter-Strike 2 at ≈ 620.0M–1007.5M copies. A breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on FPS (6 of 8) and Shooter (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with FPS + Shooter. The breakout hits carry Team-Based + Competitive + e-sports; a typical game here doesn't.
The era
The games you compared span 2006 to 2020, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Counter-Strike 2
2012
Est. copies
≈ 620.0M–1007.5M
9.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 100M–200M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
9.8M reviews
Very Positive
FPSShooter
Apex Legends™
2020
Est. copies
≈ 26.4M–43.0M
SteamSpy 100M–200M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
1.1M reviews
Mixed
Free to PlayBattle Royale
Left 4 Dead 2
2009
Est. copies
≈ 66.7M–108.4M
SteamSpy 50M–100M
Est. revenue
$183.2M–$492.6M after Steam's cut $333.1M–$757.9M before the cut
$9.99
1.1M reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
ZombiesCo-op
Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six Siege
2015
Est. copies
≈ 75.3M–122.4M
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
1.5M reviews
Very Positive
FPSPvP
PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS
2017
Est. copies
≈ 94.5M–153.6M
2.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 100M–200M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
2.7M reviews
Mixed
SurvivalShooter
Unturned
2017
Est. copies
≈ 19.4M–31.6M
SteamSpy 50M–100M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
565k reviews
Very Positive
Free to PlaySurvival
PAYDAY 2
2013
Est. copies
≈ 42.6M–69.2M
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$117.1M–$314.7M after Steam's cut $212.8M–$484.2M before the cut
$9.99
674k reviews
Very Positive
Co-opAction
Garry's Mod
2006
Est. copies
≈ 79.8M–129.6M
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$219.1M–$589.2M after Steam's cut $398.4M–$906.5M before the cut
$9.99
1.3M reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
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