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How many copies did Shadow Tactics: Blades of the Shogun sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 1.6M–2.6M
$17.6M–$47.2M after Steam's cut $31.9M–$72.7M before the cut
from 38k reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Shadow Tactics: Blades of the Shogun out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Shadow Tactics: Blades of the Shogun's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 2.9M–4.7M
best case 124.1M (PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS)
Games like Shadow Tactics: Blades of the Shogun

The middle of these games

≈ 2.9M–4.7M copies

≈ $33.8M–$73.9M after Steam's cut

from ~58k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

Best case: PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS at ≈ 94.5M–153.6M copies. A breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Co-op (6 of 8) and Shooter (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with FPS, priced around $10. The breakout hits carry FPS + Looter Shooter + Battle Royale; a typical game here doesn't.
The era
The games you compared span 2011 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

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PAYDAY 2
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≈ 42.6M–69.2M
12x vs typical
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2011
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≈ 2.6M–4.2M
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$7.1M–$19.1M after Steam's cut $12.9M–$29.4M before the cut
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FPSAction
Hitman: Absolution™
2012
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≈ 4.0M–6.5M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
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$22.1M–$59.3M after Steam's cut $40.1M–$91.3M before the cut
$19.99
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StealthAction
PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS
2017
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≈ 94.5M–153.6M
48x vs typical
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Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon® Wildlands
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≈ 3.9M–6.3M
1.9x vs typical
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Sniper Elite 4
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≈ 2.2M–3.5M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
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$59.99
63k reviews
Very Positive
SniperAction

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