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How many copies did Xenonauts 2 sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 142k–231k
$1.6M–$4.2M after Steam's cut $2.8M–$6.5M before the cut
from 6k reviews (Very Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Xenonauts 2 out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Xenonauts 2's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 3.2M–18.3M
best case 27.2M (The Forest)
Games like Xenonauts 2

The middle of these games

≈ 3.2M–18.3M copies

≈ $32.2M–$204.3M after Steam's cut

from ~146k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

Best case: The Forest at ≈ 20.7M–33.6M copies, ≈ $113.8M–$305.9M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Historical (5 of 8) and Turn-Based Strategy (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Open World Survival Craft + Survival, priced around $20.
The era
The games you compared span 2010 to 2024, and 1 of your 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

The Forest
2018
Est. copies
≈ 20.7M–33.6M
4.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$113.8M–$305.9M after Steam's cut $206.9M–$470.7M before the cut
$19.99
681k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Open World Survival CraftSurvival
Balatro
2024
Est. copies
≈ 4.9M–8.0M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$20.2M–$54.4M after Steam's cut $36.8M–$83.7M before the cut
$14.99
198k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Total War: ROME II - Emperor Edition
2013
Est. copies
≈ 5.6M–9.0M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$91.8M–$246.8M after Steam's cut $166.9M–$379.7M before the cut
$59.99
88k reviews
Very Positive
StrategyHistorical
Total War: THREE KINGDOMS
2019
Est. copies
≈ 2.7M–4.4M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$29.6M–$79.7M after Steam's cut $53.9M–$122.6M before the cut
$39.99
94k reviews
Very Positive
StrategyHistorical
Library Of Ruina
2021
Est. copies
≈ 1.1M–1.8M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$9.1M–$24.5M after Steam's cut $16.6M–$37.7M before the cut
$29.99
45k reviews
Very Positive
Story RichCard Game
Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI
2016
Est. copies
≈ 15.7M–25.6M
2.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$259.5M–$697.7M after Steam's cut $471.8M–$1073.4M before the cut
$59.99
378k reviews
Very Positive
StrategyTurn-Based Strategy
Age of History II
2018
Est. copies
≈ 1.5M–2.5M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$2.5M–$6.7M after Steam's cut $4.5M–$10.3M before the cut
$5.99
50k reviews
Very Positive
StrategyHistorical
Sid Meier's Civilization® V
2010
Est. copies
≈ 13.3M–21.6M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$109.7M–$295.1M after Steam's cut $199.5M–$454.0M before the cut
$29.99
211k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Turn-Based StrategyStrategy

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