How much revenue did Derail Valley make?

$3.1M–$8.3M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Derail Valley sell?

Q: How many copies did Derail Valley sell?

279k to 454k copies, based on its 10k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 279k–454k; $3.1M–$8.3M after Steam's cut $5.6M–$12.7M before the cut; from 10k reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Derail Valley out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Derail Valley's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 285k–1.3M

best case 7.6M (Factorio)

Games like Derail Valley

The middle of these games

≈ 285k–1.3M copies

≈ $3.4M–$14.9M after Steam's cut

from ~16k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

Best case: Factorio at ≈ 5.8M–9.4M copies, ≈ $55.8M–$150.2M after Steam's cut.

What it took to get here

About half the games that made it here had over 11k reviews in their first month; the spread ran 3k to 86k.

The genre you'd be entering

Your set: Your set clusters on Base-Building (5 of 8) and Automation (4 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Automation + Base-Building, priced around $35.
The era: 4 of your 8 similar games shipped in the last two years, so this niche is actively shipping.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

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Workers & Resources: Soviet Republic 2024	Est. copies ≈ 673k–1.1M 1.7x vs typical SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $7.4M–$19.9M after Steam's cut $13.5M–$30.6M before the cut	$39.99	27k reviews Very Positive	StrategySimulation
SimRail - The Railway Simulator 2024	Est. copies ≈ 136k–221k SteamSpy 100k–200k	Est. revenue $1.3M–$3.5M after Steam's cut $2.4M–$5.4M before the cut	$34.99	5k reviews Very Positive	TrainsSimulation
Factorio 2020	Est. copies ≈ 5.8M–9.4M 15x vs typical SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $55.8M–$150.2M after Steam's cut $101.5M–$231.0M before the cut	$35.00	234k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	AutomationBase-Building
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Stormworks: Build and Rescue 2020	Est. copies ≈ 1.5M–2.4M 3.8x vs typical SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $10.2M–$27.4M after Steam's cut $18.5M–$42.2M before the cut	$24.99	60k reviews Very Positive	SandboxBase-Building
Mini Metro 2015	Est. copies ≈ 816k–1.3M SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $2.2M–$6.0M after Steam's cut $4.1M–$9.3M before the cut	$9.99	17k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	StrategyPuzzle
Voidtrain 2025	Est. copies ≈ 244k–396k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $2.0M–$5.4M after Steam's cut $3.7M–$8.3M before the cut	$29.99	10k reviews Mostly Positive	Open World Survival CraftCo-op
Factory Town 2021	Est. copies ≈ 111k–180k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $610k–$1.6M after Steam's cut $1.1M–$2.5M before the cut	$19.99	4k reviews Very Positive	AutomationBase-Building