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How many copies did Orbt XL sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 118k–192k
$32k–$86k after Steam's cut $58k–$133k before the cut
from 3k reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Orbt XL out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Orbt XL's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 394k–830k
best case 6.4M (Balatro)
Games like Orbt XL

The middle of these games

≈ 394k–830k copies

≈ $1.1M–$2.6M after Steam's cut

from ~8k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of your similar games. The closest is Procedural Generation (3 of 8), so the genre you lead with is still undecided.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Balatro at ≈ 4.9M–8.0M copies, ≈ $20.2M–$54.4M after Steam's cut. A breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Procedural Generation (3 of 8) and Puzzle (2 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Card Game + Roguelike Deckbuilder, priced around $15. The breakout hits carry Card Game + Roguelike Deckbuilder + Rogue-like; a typical game here doesn't.
The era
The games you compared span 2007 to 2024, and 1 of your 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Melatonin
2022
Est. copies
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SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$835k–$2.2M after Steam's cut $1.5M–$3.5M before the cut
$14.99
8k reviews
Very Positive
RhythmIndie
Race The Sun
2013
Est. copies
≈ 401k–652k
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Est. revenue
$1.1M–$3.0M after Steam's cut $2.0M–$4.6M before the cut
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Procedural GenerationRunner
LYNE
2014
Est. copies
≈ 462k–750k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$380k–$1.0M after Steam's cut $690k–$1.6M before the cut
$2.99
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PuzzleLogic
Katamari Damacy REROLL
2018
Est. copies
≈ 203k–330k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$1.7M–$4.5M after Steam's cut $3.0M–$6.9M before the cut
$29.99
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Great SoundtrackCasual
Superflight
2017
Est. copies
≈ 398k–647k
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$327k–$880k after Steam's cut $595k–$1.4M before the cut
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FlightIndie
Cat Goes Fishing
2015
Est. copies
≈ 803k–1.3M
2.0x vs typical
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$1.5M–$4.2M after Steam's cut $2.8M–$6.4M before the cut
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FishingCats
Peggle Deluxe
2007
Est. copies
≈ 908k–1.5M
1.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.2M–$3.3M after Steam's cut $2.3M–$5.2M before the cut
$4.99
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Overwhelmingly Positive
CasualPuzzle
Balatro
2024
Est. copies
≈ 4.9M–8.0M
24x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$20.2M–$54.4M after Steam's cut $36.8M–$83.7M before the cut
$14.99
198k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive

Sizing up your own game? See what its genre can realistically do before you build it.