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How many copies did SIMULACRA sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 161k–261k
$221k–$593k after Steam's cut $401k–$913k before the cut
from 5k reviews (Very Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left SIMULACRA out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including SIMULACRA's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.5M–4.7M
best case 27.3M (Phasmophobia)
Games like SIMULACRA

The middle of these games

≈ 1.5M–4.7M copies

≈ $8.6M–$36.0M after Steam's cut

from ~35k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

Best case: Phasmophobia at ≈ 20.8M–33.8M copies, ≈ $114.2M–$307.1M after Steam's cut. A breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Detective (5 of 8) and Story Rich (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Horror + Psychological Horror, priced around $20. The breakout hits carry Online Co-Op + Multiplayer + Co-op; a typical game here doesn't.
The era
The games you compared span 2010 to 2020, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Return of the Obra Dinn
2018
Est. copies
≈ 1.1M–1.7M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$5.9M–$15.7M after Steam's cut $10.6M–$24.2M before the cut
$19.99
35k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
DetectiveMystery
Hacknet
2015
Est. copies
≈ 1.3M–2.1M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$3.5M–$9.4M after Steam's cut $6.4M–$14.5M before the cut
$9.99
26k reviews
Very Positive
HackingSimulation
Phasmophobia
2020
Est. copies
≈ 20.8M–33.8M
24x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$114.2M–$307.1M after Steam's cut $207.7M–$472.5M before the cut
$19.99
838k reviews
Very Positive
HorrorOnline Co-Op
Unheard - Voices of Crime
2019
Est. copies
≈ 976k–1.6M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$1.9M–$5.0M after Steam's cut $3.4M–$7.8M before the cut
$6.99
34k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
DetectivePuzzle
Danganronpa 2: Goodbye Despair
2016
Est. copies
≈ 1.4M–2.2M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$7.5M–$20.1M after Steam's cut $13.6M–$30.9M before the cut
$19.99
33k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
AnimeDetective
Batman: Arkham Asylum Game of the Year Edition
2010
Est. copies
≈ 5.5M–8.9M
2.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$30.2M–$81.3M after Steam's cut $55.0M–$125.1M before the cut
$19.99
87k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
ActionStealth
Danganronpa: Trigger Happy Havoc
2016
Est. copies
≈ 1.6M–2.6M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$8.8M–$23.5M after Steam's cut $15.9M–$36.2M before the cut
$19.99
38k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
AnimeVisual Novel
Batman™: Arkham Knight
2015
Est. copies
≈ 7.8M–12.6M
4.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$42.7M–$114.8M after Steam's cut $77.7M–$176.7M before the cut
$19.99
159k reviews
Very Positive
ActionOpen World

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