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How many copies did Ark Noir sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 1k–2k
$4k–$11k after Steam's cut $7k–$17k before the cut
from 49 reviews (Mostly Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Ark Noir out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Ark Noir's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 28k–3.7M
best case 10.2M (Doki Doki Literature Club!)
Games like Ark Noir

The middle of these games

≈ 28k–3.7M copies

≈ $79k–$27.4M after Steam's cut

from ~31k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

5 of your 8 similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of your similar games. The closest is Anime (3 of 8), so the genre you lead with is still undecided.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Doki Doki Literature Club! at ≈ 7.8M–12.7M copies.

What it took to get here
About half the games that made it here had over 6k reviews in their first month; the spread ran 6 to 14k.
The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Anime (3 of 8) and Dating Sim (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Psychological Horror + Visual Novel.
The era
The games you compared span 2016 to 2024, and 3 of your 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 52 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

We. The Revolution
2019
Est. copies
≈ 71k–116k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$392k–$1.1M after Steam's cut $712k–$1.6M before the cut
$19.99
2k reviews
Mostly Positive
HistoricalChoices Matter
Darkest Dungeon®
2016
Est. copies
≈ 6.7M–10.9M
5.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$46.2M–$124.2M after Steam's cut $84.0M–$191.0M before the cut
$24.99
162k reviews
Very Positive
Turn-Based CombatDark Fantasy
Doki Doki Literature Club!
2017
Est. copies
≈ 7.8M–12.7M
7.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
227k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Persona 3 Reload
2024
Est. copies
≈ 1.6M–2.5M
2.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$25.6M–$68.8M after Steam's cut $46.5M–$105.9M before the cut
$59.99
63k reviews
Very Positive
JRPGRPG
VED
2024
Est. copies
≈ 2k–3k
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$11k–$28k after Steam's cut $19k–$43k before the cut
$19.99
77 reviews
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The Hungry Lamb: Traveling in the Late Ming Dynasty
2024
Est. copies
≈ 1.5M–2.4M
1.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$4.1M–$11.0M after Steam's cut $7.4M–$16.9M before the cut
$9.99
60k reviews
Very Positive
Visual NovelHistorical
Coldage
2022
Est. copies
≈ 223–363
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$858–$2k after Steam's cut $2k–$4k before the cut
$13.99
9 reviews
9 user reviews
Post-apocalypticHand-drawn
Pastelia Stories
2017
Est. copies
≈ 28k–45k
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$76k–$203k after Steam's cut $137k–$313k before the cut
$9.99
800 reviews
Mixed
RPGStrategy

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