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How many copies did Freeman: Guerrilla Warfare sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 359k–583k
$2.5M–$6.6M after Steam's cut $4.5M–$10.2M before the cut
from 12k reviews (Mixed)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Freeman: Guerrilla Warfare out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Freeman: Guerrilla Warfare's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 23.8M–105.2M
best case 813.7M (Counter-Strike 2)
Games like Freeman: Guerrilla Warfare

The middle of these games

≈ 23.8M–105.2M copies

≈ $149.8M–$249.7M after Steam's cut

from ~727k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

Best case: Counter-Strike 2 at ≈ 620.0M–1007.5M copies.

The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on FPS (6 of 8) and Shooter (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with FPS + Shooter.
The era
The games you compared span 2000 to 2018, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 38 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Paladins®
2018
Est. copies
≈ 10.5M–17.1M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
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Free
Free
345k reviews
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Hero ShooterFree to Play
PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS
2017
Est. copies
≈ 94.5M–153.6M
3.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 100M–200M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
2.7M reviews
Mixed
SurvivalShooter
Counter-Strike 2
2012
Est. copies
≈ 620.0M–1007.5M
13x vs typical
SteamSpy 100M–200M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
9.8M reviews
Very Positive
FPSShooter
War Thunder
2013
Est. copies
≈ 49.3M–80.1M
SteamSpy 20M–50M
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Free
Free
780k reviews
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Free to PlaySimulation
Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six Siege
2015
Est. copies
≈ 75.3M–122.4M
2.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
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Free
Free
1.5M reviews
Very Positive
FPSPvP
Arma 3
2013
Est. copies
≈ 18.6M–30.3M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$153.8M–$413.4M after Steam's cut $279.6M–$636.0M before the cut
$29.99
295k reviews
Very Positive
MilitaryAction
Counter-Strike
2000
Est. copies
≈ 16.5M–26.8M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$45.4M–$122.0M after Steam's cut $82.5M–$187.7M before the cut
$9.99
261k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
ActionFPS
PAYDAY 2
2013
Est. copies
≈ 42.6M–69.2M
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$117.1M–$314.7M after Steam's cut $212.8M–$484.2M before the cut
$9.99
674k reviews
Very Positive
Co-opAction

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