How much revenue did Shenmue III make?

$290k–$780k after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Shenmue III sell?

Q: How many copies did Shenmue III sell?

35k to 57k copies, based on its 1k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 35k–57k; $290k–$780k after Steam's cut $528k–$1.2M before the cut; from 1k reviews (Mostly Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Shenmue III out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Shenmue III's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 532k–1.6M

best case 5.8M (Sleeping Dogs: Definitive Edition)

Games like Shenmue III

The middle of these games

≈ 532k–1.6M copies

≈ $5.1M–$18.4M after Steam's cut

from ~26k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

Best case: Sleeping Dogs: Definitive Edition at ≈ 4.4M–7.2M copies, ≈ $24.4M–$65.7M after Steam's cut.

What it took to get here

About half the games that made it here had over 8k reviews in their first month; the spread ran 7k to 17k.

The genre you'd be entering

Your set: Your set clusters on Martial Arts (8 of 8) and Open World (7 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Open World + Martial Arts, priced around $20.
The era: The games you compared span 2014 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Sleeping Dogs unreleased	Est. copies ≈ 428k–696k SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue Free	Free	17k reviews Very Positive	Open WorldAction
觅长生 2023	Est. copies ≈ 792k–1.3M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $3.3M–$8.8M after Steam's cut $5.9M–$13.5M before the cut	$14.99	32k reviews Very Positive	RPGOpen World
Sleeping Dogs: Definitive Edition 2014	Est. copies ≈ 4.4M–7.2M 3.1x vs typical SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $24.4M–$65.7M after Steam's cut $44.4M–$101.1M before the cut	$19.99	79k reviews Very Positive	Open WorldAction
Sword and Fairy 7 2021	Est. copies ≈ 476k–773k SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $3.9M–$10.6M after Steam's cut $7.1M–$16.2M before the cut	$29.99	19k reviews Mostly Positive	RPGSingleplayer
河洛群俠傳 (Ho Tu Lo Shu ： The Books of Dragon) 2018	Est. copies ≈ 337k–547k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $1.7M–$4.5M after Steam's cut $3.0M–$6.9M before the cut	$17.99	11k reviews Very Positive	RPGMartial Arts
Gujian3(古剑奇谭三) 2018	Est. copies ≈ 1.5M–2.4M 1.9x vs typical SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $12.3M–$33.0M after Steam's cut $22.3M–$50.8M before the cut	$29.99	49k reviews Very Positive	RPGStory Rich
Wandering Sword 2023	Est. copies ≈ 1.1M–1.8M 1.8x vs typical SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $7.6M–$20.6M after Steam's cut $13.9M–$31.6M before the cut	$24.99	45k reviews Very Positive	RPGMartial Arts
Xuan-Yuan Sword VII 2020	Est. copies ≈ 237k–386k SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $2.3M–$6.1M after Steam's cut $4.2M–$9.5M before the cut	$34.99	10k reviews Mixed	RPGMartial Arts