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How many copies did RAGE sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 1.2M–1.9M
$3.2M–$8.5M after Steam's cut $5.8M–$13.1M before the cut
from 18k reviews (Mostly Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left RAGE out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including RAGE's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 4.5M–9.4M
best case 27.4M (Fallout 4)
Games like RAGE

The middle of these games

≈ 4.5M–9.4M copies

≈ $56.1M–$93.6M after Steam's cut

from ~136k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

Best case: Fallout 4 at ≈ 20.9M–34.0M copies, ≈ $114.9M–$308.8M after Steam's cut.

What it took to get here
About half the games that made it here had over 14k reviews in their first month; the spread ran 14k to 88k.
The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Open World (8 of 8) and Post-apocalyptic (7 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Open World + Post-apocalyptic, priced around $20.
The era
The games you compared span 2007 to 2024, and 1 of your 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Fallout: New Vegas
2010
Est. copies
≈ 16.5M–26.8M
1.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$45.3M–$121.9M after Steam's cut $82.5M–$187.6M before the cut
$9.99
261k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Open WorldRPG
Fallout 4
2015
Est. copies
≈ 20.9M–34.0M
3.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$114.9M–$308.8M after Steam's cut $208.9M–$475.1M before the cut
$19.99
428k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldPost-apocalyptic
Fallout 76
2020
Est. copies
≈ 3.5M–5.7M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$38.3M–$102.9M after Steam's cut $69.6M–$158.3M before the cut
$39.99
140k reviews
Mostly Positive
Open WorldMultiplayer
S.T.A.L.K.E.R. 2: Heart of Chornobyl
2024
Est. copies
≈ 3.4M–5.5M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$56.2M–$151.0M after Steam's cut $102.1M–$232.3M before the cut
$59.99
137k reviews
Mostly Positive
Open WorldFPS
Tom Clancy’s The Division™
2016
Est. copies
≈ 4.0M–6.5M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$33.2M–$89.2M after Steam's cut $60.3M–$137.2M before the cut
$29.99
97k reviews
Mostly Positive
Open WorldLooter Shooter
Metro Exodus
2020
Est. copies
≈ 3.4M–5.5M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$27.7M–$74.4M after Steam's cut $50.3M–$114.5M before the cut
$29.99
135k reviews
Very Positive
Post-apocalypticFPS
S.T.A.L.K.E.R.: Shadow of Chernobyl
2007
Est. copies
≈ 3.0M–4.9M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$16.7M–$44.9M after Steam's cut $30.4M–$69.1M before the cut
$19.99
48k reviews
Very Positive
AtmosphericPost-apocalyptic
Just Survive
2015
Est. copies
≈ 3.7M–6.1M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
77k reviews
Mixed
ZombiesSurvival

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