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How many copies did The Dream Machine: Chapter 1 & 2 sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 142k–230k
$155k–$418k after Steam's cut $283k–$643k before the cut
from 2k reviews (Very Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left The Dream Machine: Chapter 1 & 2 out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including The Dream Machine: Chapter 1 & 2's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.8M–2.9M
best case 25.3M (Hollow Knight)
Games like The Dream Machine: Chapter 1 & 2

The middle of these games

≈ 1.8M–2.9M copies

≈ $15.6M–$21.2M after Steam's cut

from ~59k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

Your picks lean toward this genre's biggest survivors; the typical figure reads from its ordinary successes.

No genre covers most of your similar games. The closest is Platformer (3 of 8), so the genre you lead with is still undecided.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Hollow Knight at ≈ 19.2M–31.3M copies, ≈ $79.3M–$213.3M after Steam's cut. A breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What it took to get here
About half the games that made it here had over 32k reviews in their first month; the spread ran 3k to 208k.
The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Platformer (3 of 8) and Automobile Sim (2 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Management + Simulation, priced around $20. The breakout hits carry Multiplayer; a typical game here doesn't.
The era
The games you compared span 2017 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 43 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

GRIS
2018
Est. copies
≈ 2.9M–4.8M
1.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$12.1M–$32.4M after Steam's cut $21.9M–$49.9M before the cut
$14.99
96k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
BeautifulAtmospheric
鬼谷八荒 Tale of Immortal
2023
Est. copies
≈ 5.6M–9.1M
3.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$30.6M–$82.3M after Steam's cut $55.7M–$126.7M before the cut
$19.99
225k reviews
Mixed
ManagementSingleplayer
Grand Theft Auto IV: Complete Edition
unreleased
Est. copies
≈ 5.0M–8.1M
3.4x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
202k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldAction
The Henry Stickmin Collection
2020
Est. copies
≈ 1.5M–2.4M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$6.1M–$16.3M after Steam's cut $11.0M–$25.1M before the cut
$14.99
59k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
FunnyMultiple Endings
Hollow Knight
2017
Est. copies
≈ 19.2M–31.3M
9.4x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$79.3M–$213.3M after Steam's cut $144.2M–$328.1M before the cut
$14.99
559k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Grand Theft Auto IV: The Complete Edition
2020
Est. copies
≈ 5.0M–8.1M
3.4x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$27.6M–$74.1M after Steam's cut $50.1M–$114.0M before the cut
$19.99
202k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldAction
Spiritfarer®: Farewell Edition
2020
Est. copies
≈ 1.3M–2.1M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$10.9M–$29.3M after Steam's cut $19.8M–$45.0M before the cut
$29.99
53k reviews
Very Positive
EmotionalStory Rich
Cuphead
2017
Est. copies
≈ 7.6M–12.3M
3.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$41.7M–$112.1M after Steam's cut $75.8M–$172.5M before the cut
$19.99
220k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
DifficultCartoon

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