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How many copies did Firework sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 1.1M–1.8M
$3.0M–$8.1M after Steam's cut $5.5M–$12.5M before the cut
from 44k reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Firework out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Firework's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 3.9M–5.4M
best case 12.4M (Human Fall Flat)
Games like Firework

The middle of these games

≈ 3.9M–5.4M copies

≈ $10.1M–$53.8M after Steam's cut

from ~121k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of your similar games. The closest is Dark (4 of 8), so the genre you lead with is still undecided.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Human Fall Flat at ≈ 9.4M–15.3M copies, ≈ $51.8M–$139.3M after Steam's cut.

What it took to get here
About half the games that made it here had over 5k reviews in their first month; the spread ran 3k to 69k.
The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Dark (4 of 8) and Horror (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Co-op + Puzzle, priced around $20.
The era
The games you compared span 2016 to 2024, and 1 of your 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 52 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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1.9x vs typical
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