How much revenue did BLACKTAIL make?

$579k–$1.6M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did BLACKTAIL sell?

Q: How many copies did BLACKTAIL sell?

70k to 114k copies, based on its 3k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 70k–114k; $579k–$1.6M after Steam's cut $1.1M–$2.4M before the cut; from 3k reviews (Very Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left BLACKTAIL out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including BLACKTAIL's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 4k–39k

best case 71k (The Pathless)

Games like BLACKTAIL

The middle of these games

≈ 4k–39k copies

≈ $30k–$431k after Steam's cut

from ~275 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

3 of your 8 similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of your similar games. The closest is Action RPG (4 of 8), so the genre you lead with is still undecided.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: The Pathless at ≈ 54k–88k copies, ≈ $593k–$1.6M after Steam's cut.

What it took to get here

About half the games that made it here had over 65 reviews in their first month; the spread ran 1 to 887.

Under about 100 in month one, almost nothing recovers.

The genre you'd be entering

Your set: Your set clusters on Action RPG (4 of 8) and Exploration (3 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Archery + Exploration, priced around $40.
The era: Only 2 of your 8 similar games shipped in the last two years. That says more about your picks than about the market, so add newer similar games to read the timing.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate of about 31, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Cynthia: Hidden in the Moonshadow 2023	Est. copies ≈ 4k–7k SteamSpy under 20k	Est. revenue $16k–$42k after Steam's cut $29k–$65k before the cut	$13.99	165 reviews Mostly Positive	AdventureExploration
Budget Cuts Ultimate 2023	Est. copies ≈ 3k–5k SteamSpy under 20k	Est. revenue $16k–$42k after Steam's cut $28k–$64k before the cut	$19.99	114 reviews Very Positive	ActionAdventure
The Vale: Shadow of the Crown 2021	Est. copies ≈ 10k–15k SteamSpy under 20k	Est. revenue $52k–$141k after Steam's cut $95k–$217k before the cut	$19.99	384 reviews Very Positive	RPGAction-Adventure
DragonRoad 2025	Est. copies ≈ 3k–5k SteamSpy under 20k	Est. revenue $16k–$44k after Steam's cut $30k–$68k before the cut	$19.98	121 reviews Very Positive	RoguevaniaExploration
Karnage Chronicles 2020	Est. copies ≈ 34k–55k 5.0x vs typical SteamSpy under 20k	Est. revenue $233k–$628k after Steam's cut $425k–$966k before the cut	$24.99	1k reviews Very Positive	VRHack and Slash
Winter Ember 2022	Est. copies ≈ 3k–5k SteamSpy 100k–200k	Est. revenue $23k–$63k after Steam's cut $42k–$96k before the cut	$29.99	114 reviews Mixed	ActionAction RPG
The Pathless 2021	Est. copies ≈ 54k–88k 7.9x vs typical SteamSpy 50k–100k	Est. revenue $593k–$1.6M after Steam's cut $1.1M–$2.5M before the cut	$39.99	2k reviews Very Positive	AdventureArchery
Grimlord 2024	Est. copies ≈ 28k–46k 4.2x vs typical SteamSpy 20k–50k	Est. revenue $235k–$632k after Steam's cut $427k–$972k before the cut	$29.99	1k reviews Mostly Positive	VRSouls-like