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How many copies did Shadow Tactics: Aiko's Choice sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 120k–195k
$659k–$1.8M after Steam's cut $1.2M–$2.7M before the cut
from 5k reviews (Very Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Shadow Tactics: Aiko's Choice out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Shadow Tactics: Aiko's Choice's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 591k–1.1M
best case 2.1M (Shadow Tactics: Blades of the Shogun)
Games like Shadow Tactics: Aiko's Choice

The middle of these games

≈ 591k–1.1M copies

≈ $7.9M–$9.5M after Steam's cut

from ~19k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

Your picks lean toward this genre's biggest survivors; the typical figure reads from its ordinary successes.

No genre covers most of your similar games. The closest is Base-Building (4 of 8), so the genre you lead with is still undecided.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Shadow Tactics: Blades of the Shogun at ≈ 1.6M–2.6M copies, ≈ $17.6M–$47.2M after Steam's cut. A breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What it took to get here
About half the games that made it here had over 6k reviews in their first month; the spread ran 55 to 19k.
The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Base-Building (4 of 8) and Real Time Tactics (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Stealth + Tactical, priced around $30. The breakout hits carry Multiplayer; a typical game here doesn't.
The era
The games you compared span 2013 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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≈ 1.6M–2.6M
2.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$17.6M–$47.2M after Steam's cut $31.9M–$72.7M before the cut
$39.99
38k reviews
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