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How many copies did Dune: Spice Wars sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 336k–546k
$3.2M–$8.7M after Steam's cut $5.9M–$13.4M before the cut
from 14k reviews (Mostly Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Dune: Spice Wars out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Dune: Spice Wars's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 2.7M–8.2M
best case 9.8M (RimWorld)
Games like Dune: Spice Wars

The middle of these games

≈ 2.7M–8.2M copies

≈ $37.6M–$110.4M after Steam's cut

from ~118k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

Best case: RimWorld at ≈ 7.5M–12.1M copies, ≈ $71.8M–$193.1M after Steam's cut.

What it took to get here
About half the games that made it here had over 34k reviews in their first month; the spread ran 6k to 86k.
The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Building (5 of 8) and Sandbox (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Colony Sim + Base-Building, priced around $35.
The era
The games you compared span 2016 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 52 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Dyson Sphere Program
2021
Est. copies
≈ 2.3M–3.7M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$12.5M–$33.6M after Steam's cut $22.7M–$51.6M before the cut
$19.99
92k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
AutomationSpace
Factorio
2020
Est. copies
≈ 5.8M–9.4M
2.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$55.8M–$150.2M after Steam's cut $101.5M–$231.0M before the cut
$35.00
234k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
AutomationBase-Building
Jurassic World Evolution
2018
Est. copies
≈ 1.7M–2.7M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$20.8M–$55.9M after Steam's cut $37.8M–$86.0M before the cut
$44.99
55k reviews
Very Positive
BuildingDinosaurs
Jurassic World Evolution 2
2021
Est. copies
≈ 1.2M–1.9M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$19.2M–$51.7M after Steam's cut $35.0M–$79.5M before the cut
$59.99
47k reviews
Very Positive
DinosaursBuilding
RimWorld
2018
Est. copies
≈ 7.5M–12.1M
2.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$71.8M–$193.1M after Steam's cut $130.6M–$297.1M before the cut
$34.99
246k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Colony SimBase-Building
Stellaris
2016
Est. copies
≈ 8.2M–13.3M
1.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$112.6M–$302.8M after Steam's cut $204.7M–$465.8M before the cut
$49.99
197k reviews
Very Positive
Oxygen Not Included
2019
Est. copies
≈ 4.1M–6.7M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$28.4M–$76.4M after Steam's cut $51.7M–$117.5M before the cut
$24.99
144k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Colony SimBase-Building
Barotrauma
2023
Est. copies
≈ 2.2M–3.6M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$24.4M–$65.5M after Steam's cut $44.3M–$100.8M before the cut
$39.99
89k reviews
Very Positive
Co-opMultiplayer

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