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How many copies did Starfield sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 4.3M–7.1M
$59.7M–$160.4M after Steam's cut $108.5M–$246.8M before the cut
from 175k reviews (Mixed)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Starfield out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Starfield's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 9.0M–23.2M
best case 37.7M (HELLDIVERS™ 2)
Games like Starfield

The middle of these games

≈ 9.0M–23.2M copies

≈ $117.3M–$366.2M after Steam's cut

from ~312k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of your similar games. The closest is Exploration (4 of 8), so the genre you lead with is still undecided.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: HELLDIVERS™ 2 at ≈ 28.7M–46.7M copies, ≈ $315.9M–$849.4M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Exploration (4 of 8) and Sci-fi (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Third-Person Shooter + Shooter, priced around $40.
The era
The games you compared span 2016 to 2024, and 1 of your 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 52 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Stellaris
2016
Est. copies
≈ 8.2M–13.3M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$112.6M–$302.8M after Steam's cut $204.7M–$465.8M before the cut
$49.99
197k reviews
Very Positive
Destiny 2
2019
Est. copies
≈ 19.0M–30.9M
2.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
661k reviews
Mostly Positive
Free to PlayOpen World
RimWorld
2018
Est. copies
≈ 7.5M–12.1M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$71.8M–$193.1M after Steam's cut $130.6M–$297.1M before the cut
$34.99
246k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Colony SimBase-Building
Deep Rock Galactic
2020
Est. copies
≈ 9.4M–15.3M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$77.6M–$208.6M after Steam's cut $141.1M–$321.0M before the cut
$29.99
379k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
DwarfCo-op
Starbound
2016
Est. copies
≈ 5.1M–8.3M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$21.1M–$56.8M after Steam's cut $38.4M–$87.4M before the cut
$14.99
123k reviews
Very Positive
Open World Survival CraftSandbox
No Man's Sky
2016
Est. copies
≈ 17.2M–28.0M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$284.5M–$764.9M after Steam's cut $517.2M–$1176.7M before the cut
$59.99
415k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldOpen World Survival Craft
STAR WARS Jedi: Fallen Order™
2019
Est. copies
≈ 5.0M–8.2M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$55.4M–$149.0M after Steam's cut $100.7M–$229.2M before the cut
$39.99
175k reviews
Very Positive
Action-AdventureSouls-like
HELLDIVERS™ 2
2024
Est. copies
≈ 28.7M–46.7M
3.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$315.9M–$849.4M after Steam's cut $574.4M–$1306.8M before the cut
$39.99
1.2M reviews
Mostly Positive
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