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How many copies did Snufkin: Melody of Moominvalley sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 106k–172k
$581k–$1.6M after Steam's cut $1.1M–$2.4M before the cut
from 4k reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Snufkin: Melody of Moominvalley out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Snufkin: Melody of Moominvalley's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 4.2M–10.7M
best case 12.1M (Hogwarts Legacy)
Games like Snufkin: Melody of Moominvalley

The middle of these games

≈ 4.2M–10.7M copies

≈ $53.4M–$99.1M after Steam's cut

from ~157k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

Best case: Hogwarts Legacy at ≈ 9.2M–15.0M copies, ≈ $152.1M–$408.9M after Steam's cut.

What it took to get here
About half the games that made it here had over 38k reviews in their first month; the spread ran 5k to 171k.
The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Open World (6 of 8) and Exploration (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Magic + Open World, priced around $60.
The era
The games you compared span 2015 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Rise of the Tomb Raider™
2016
Est. copies
≈ 6.5M–10.5M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$53.2M–$143.0M after Steam's cut $96.7M–$220.1M before the cut
$29.99
155k reviews
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AdventureAction
Shadow of the Tomb Raider: Definitive Edition
2018
Est. copies
≈ 2.7M–4.3M
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$29.4M–$79.0M after Steam's cut $53.4M–$121.5M before the cut
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AdventureAction
Human Fall Flat
2016
Est. copies
≈ 9.4M–15.3M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$51.8M–$139.3M after Steam's cut $94.2M–$214.2M before the cut
$19.99
226k reviews
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Co-opFunny
STAR WARS Jedi: Fallen Order™
2019
Est. copies
≈ 5.0M–8.2M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
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$55.4M–$149.0M after Steam's cut $100.7M–$229.2M before the cut
$39.99
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Action-AdventureSouls-like
Batman™: Arkham Knight
2015
Est. copies
≈ 7.8M–12.6M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$42.7M–$114.8M after Steam's cut $77.7M–$176.7M before the cut
$19.99
159k reviews
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ActionOpen World
Outer Wilds
2020
Est. copies
≈ 2.6M–4.3M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
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$18.2M–$48.9M after Steam's cut $33.1M–$75.3M before the cut
$24.99
107k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
ExplorationSpace
Teardown
2022
Est. copies
≈ 3.4M–5.5M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$27.7M–$74.5M after Steam's cut $50.4M–$114.7M before the cut
$29.99
136k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
DestructionPhysics
Hogwarts Legacy
2023
Est. copies
≈ 9.2M–15.0M
2.4x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$152.1M–$408.9M after Steam's cut $276.5M–$629.1M before the cut
$59.99
372k reviews
Very Positive
MagicOpen World

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