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How many copies did Terminator: Dark Fate - Defiance sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 110k–179k
$1.2M–$3.3M after Steam's cut $2.2M–$5.0M before the cut
from 4k reviews (Very Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Terminator: Dark Fate - Defiance out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Terminator: Dark Fate - Defiance's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 389k–543k
best case 1.3M (Company of Heroes 3)
Games like Terminator: Dark Fate - Defiance

The middle of these games

≈ 389k–543k copies

≈ $3.9M–$6.6M after Steam's cut

from ~14k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

Best case: Company of Heroes 3 at ≈ 992k–1.6M copies, ≈ $16.4M–$44.0M after Steam's cut. A breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What it took to get here
About half the games that made it here had over 5k reviews in their first month; the spread ran 4k to 13k.
The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on RTS (8 of 8) and Wargame (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Wargame + RTS, priced around $60. The breakout hits carry Action RTS + Co-op + PvE; a typical game here doesn't.
The era
The games you compared span 2014 to 2024, and 1 of your 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Wargame: Red Dragon
2014
Est. copies
≈ 1.1M–1.8M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$9.1M–$24.5M after Steam's cut $16.6M–$37.7M before the cut
$29.99
20k reviews
Very Positive
StrategyRTS
Ultimate General: Civil War
2017
Est. copies
≈ 295k–480k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$2.4M–$6.5M after Steam's cut $4.4M–$10.1M before the cut
$29.99
9k reviews
Very Positive
WargameReal Time Tactics
WARNO
2024
Est. copies
≈ 397k–645k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$4.4M–$11.7M after Steam's cut $7.9M–$18.1M before the cut
$39.99
16k reviews
Mostly Positive
WargameMilitary
Company of Heroes 3
2023
Est. copies
≈ 992k–1.6M
2.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$16.4M–$44.0M after Steam's cut $29.8M–$67.7M before the cut
$59.99
40k reviews
Mixed
SingleplayerStrategy
Ultimate Epic Battle Simulator 2
2023
Est. copies
≈ 185k–300k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$1.0M–$2.7M after Steam's cut $1.8M–$4.2M before the cut
$19.99
7k reviews
Very Positive
SimulationSandbox
Total War: ROME REMASTERED
2021
Est. copies
≈ 340k–552k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$2.8M–$7.5M after Steam's cut $5.1M–$11.6M before the cut
$29.99
14k reviews
Mostly Positive
StrategyGrand Strategy
Starship Troopers: Terran Command
2022
Est. copies
≈ 298k–484k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$2.5M–$6.6M after Steam's cut $4.5M–$10.2M before the cut
$29.99
12k reviews
Very Positive
StrategyRTS
Bad North: Jotunn Edition
2018
Est. copies
≈ 431k–700k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.8M–$4.8M after Steam's cut $3.2M–$7.3M before the cut
$14.99
14k reviews
Very Positive
WargameVikings

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