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How many copies did Arma Reforger sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 1.4M–2.3M
$15.5M–$41.7M after Steam's cut $28.2M–$64.2M before the cut
from 57k reviews (Mostly Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Arma Reforger out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Arma Reforger's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 14.7M–20.0M
best case 98.8M (Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six Siege)
Games like Arma Reforger

The middle of these games

≈ 14.7M–20.0M copies

≈ $113.2M–$341.7M after Steam's cut

from ~269k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

Best case: Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six Siege at ≈ 75.3M–122.4M copies. A breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Shooter (5 of 8) and FPS (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with FPS + Tactical. The breakout hits carry e-sports + Free to Play + Vehicular Combat; a typical game here doesn't.
The era
The games you compared span 2004 to 2020, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six Siege
2015
Est. copies
≈ 75.3M–122.4M
5.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
1.5M reviews
Very Positive
FPSPvP
Arma 3
2013
Est. copies
≈ 18.6M–30.3M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$153.8M–$413.4M after Steam's cut $279.6M–$636.0M before the cut
$29.99
295k reviews
Very Positive
MilitaryAction
War Thunder
2013
Est. copies
≈ 49.3M–80.1M
2.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
780k reviews
Mostly Positive
Free to PlaySimulation
DayZ
2018
Est. copies
≈ 14.2M–23.1M
1.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$195.8M–$526.4M after Steam's cut $356.0M–$809.9M before the cut
$49.99
469k reviews
Mostly Positive
SurvivalOpen World
Hearts of Iron IV
2016
Est. copies
≈ 15.6M–25.4M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$214.5M–$576.7M after Steam's cut $390.0M–$887.2M before the cut
$49.99
375k reviews
Very Positive
StrategyWorld War II
Counter-Strike: Source
2004
Est. copies
≈ 12.2M–19.8M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$33.5M–$90.1M after Steam's cut $60.9M–$138.7M before the cut
$9.99
193k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
ShooterFPS
Squad
2020
Est. copies
≈ 6.0M–9.8M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$66.2M–$178.0M after Steam's cut $120.4M–$273.9M before the cut
$39.99
243k reviews
Very Positive
MilitaryRealistic
Mount & Blade: Warband
2010
Est. copies
≈ 10.9M–17.7M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$59.7M–$160.6M after Steam's cut $108.6M–$247.1M before the cut
$19.99
172k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
MedievalRPG

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