How much revenue did Lucius make?

$1.9M–$5.1M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Lucius sell?

Q: How many copies did Lucius sell?

690k to 1.1M copies, based on its 11k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 690k–1.1M; $1.9M–$5.1M after Steam's cut $3.4M–$7.8M before the cut; from 11k reviews (Very Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Lucius out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Lucius's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 824k–1.1M

best case 2.3M (NBA 2K20)

Games like Lucius

The middle of these games

≈ 824k–1.1M copies

≈ $6.9M–$9.6M after Steam's cut

from ~26k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of your similar games. The closest is Villain Protagonist (4 of 8), so the genre you lead with is still undecided.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: NBA 2K20 at ≈ 1.7M–2.8M copies. A breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What it took to get here

About half the games that made it here had over 6k reviews in their first month; the spread ran 2k to 15k.

The genre you'd be entering

Your set: Your set clusters on Villain Protagonist (4 of 8) and Gore (3 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Basketball + Sports, priced around $20. The breakout hits carry Singleplayer + Basketball + Sports; a typical game here doesn't.
The era: The games you compared span 2015 to 2022, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
NBA 2K20 2019	Est. copies ≈ 1.7M–2.8M 2.3x vs typical SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue Free	Free	60k reviews Mixed	BasketballSports
Dungeons 3 2017	Est. copies ≈ 644k–1.0M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $5.3M–$14.3M after Steam's cut $9.7M–$22.0M before the cut	$29.99	19k reviews Very Positive	StrategyVillain Protagonist
Hatred 2015	Est. copies ≈ 1.4M–2.3M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $2.4M–$6.4M after Steam's cut $4.3M–$9.8M before the cut	$5.99	30k reviews Very Positive	GoreViolent
Untitled Goose Game 2020	Est. copies ≈ 623k–1.0M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $3.4M–$9.2M after Steam's cut $6.2M–$14.2M before the cut	$19.99	25k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	FunnyVillain Protagonist
Maneater 2021	Est. copies ≈ 653k–1.1M SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $7.2M–$19.3M after Steam's cut $13.1M–$29.7M before the cut	$39.99	26k reviews Very Positive	Open WorldDark Humor
CARRION 2020	Est. copies ≈ 882k–1.4M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $4.8M–$13.0M after Steam's cut $8.8M–$20.1M before the cut	$19.99	36k reviews Very Positive	Villain ProtagonistPixel Graphics
Police Simulator: Patrol Officers 2022	Est. copies ≈ 568k–922k SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $4.7M–$12.6M after Steam's cut $8.5M–$19.4M before the cut	$29.99	23k reviews Mostly Positive	SimulationCrime
Skul: The Hero Slayer 2021	Est. copies ≈ 1.4M–2.3M 2.2x vs typical SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $7.8M–$21.1M after Steam's cut $14.3M–$32.5M before the cut	$19.99	58k reviews Very Positive	IndieAction