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How many copies did Umamusume: Pretty Derby - Party Dash sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 39k–64k
$651k–$1.8M after Steam's cut $1.2M–$2.7M before the cut
from 2k reviews (Mostly Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Umamusume: Pretty Derby - Party Dash out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Umamusume: Pretty Derby - Party Dash's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 4.6M–7.3M
best case 12.0M (People Playground)
Games like Umamusume: Pretty Derby - Party Dash

The middle of these games

≈ 4.6M–7.3M copies

≈ $22.6M–$45.1M after Steam's cut

from ~146k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of your similar games. The closest is Action Roguelike (2 of 8), so the genre you lead with is still undecided.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: People Playground at ≈ 9.1M–14.9M copies, ≈ $25.1M–$67.5M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Action Roguelike (2 of 8) and Bullet Hell (2 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Sandbox + Gore, priced around $10.
The era
The games you compared span 2012 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Call of Duty®: Black Ops III
2015
Est. copies
≈ 309k–502k
too small to compare
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$5.1M–$13.7M after Steam's cut $9.3M–$21.1M before the cut
$59.99
6k reviews
Mostly Negative
MultiplayerFPS
Broforce
2015
Est. copies
≈ 3.0M–4.8M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$12.3M–$33.0M after Steam's cut $22.3M–$50.7M before the cut
$14.99
61k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
AmericaAction
Realm of the Mad God Exalt
2012
Est. copies
≈ 3.0M–4.9M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
48k reviews
Very Positive
Pixel GraphicsMMORPG
People Playground
2019
Est. copies
≈ 9.1M–14.9M
2.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$25.1M–$67.5M after Steam's cut $45.7M–$103.9M before the cut
$9.99
317k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
SandboxGore
DAVE THE DIVER
2023
Est. copies
≈ 4.0M–6.5M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$22.0M–$59.2M after Steam's cut $40.0M–$91.0M before the cut
$19.99
161k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Pixel GraphicsCasual
Celeste
2018
Est. copies
≈ 4.4M–7.2M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$24.5M–$65.8M after Steam's cut $44.5M–$101.2M before the cut
$19.99
146k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Trove
2015
Est. copies
≈ 4.5M–7.4M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
93k reviews
Mostly Positive
Free to PlayOpen World
Vampire Survivors
2022
Est. copies
≈ 6.6M–10.7M
1.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$9.0M–$24.2M after Steam's cut $16.4M–$37.3M before the cut
$4.99
265k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Action RoguelikeBullet Hell

Sizing up your own game? See what its genre can realistically do before you build it.