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How many copies did Tom Clancy’s Splinter Cell Blacklist sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 1.4M–2.2M
$7.5M–$20.2M after Steam's cut $13.7M–$31.1M before the cut
from 22k reviews (Mostly Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Tom Clancy’s Splinter Cell Blacklist out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Tom Clancy’s Splinter Cell Blacklist's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 2.9M–5.2M
best case 5.1M (Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon® Wildlands)
Games like Tom Clancy’s Splinter Cell Blacklist

The middle of these games

≈ 2.9M–5.2M copies

≈ $40.8M–$91.9M after Steam's cut

from ~76k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

Best case: Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon® Wildlands at ≈ 3.9M–6.3M copies, ≈ $53.3M–$143.2M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Stealth (7 of 8) and Open World (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Open World + Shooter, priced around $50.
The era
None of the games you compared shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2018. That says more about your picks than about the market, so add newer similar games to read the timing.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 38 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Assassin's Creed® Unity
2014
Est. copies
≈ 4.8M–7.8M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$39.5M–$106.1M after Steam's cut $71.8M–$163.2M before the cut
$29.99
85k reviews
Mostly Positive
Open WorldParkour
Shadow Tactics: Blades of the Shogun
2016
Est. copies
≈ 1.6M–2.6M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$17.6M–$47.2M after Steam's cut $31.9M–$72.7M before the cut
$39.99
38k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
StealthStrategy
HITMAN™ 2
2018
Est. copies
≈ 2.3M–3.7M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
75k reviews
Very Positive
StealthAssassin
Sniper Elite 4
2017
Est. copies
≈ 2.2M–3.5M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$35.7M–$96.0M after Steam's cut $64.9M–$147.7M before the cut
$59.99
63k reviews
Very Positive
SniperAction
Friday the 13th: The Game
2017
Est. copies
≈ 2.6M–4.3M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
77k reviews
Very Positive
HorrorMultiplayer
Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon® Wildlands
2017
Est. copies
≈ 3.9M–6.3M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$53.3M–$143.2M after Steam's cut $96.8M–$220.3M before the cut
$49.99
113k reviews
Mostly Positive
Open WorldShooter
Watch_Dogs™
2014
Est. copies
≈ 2.9M–4.8M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$16.1M–$43.4M after Steam's cut $29.4M–$66.8M before the cut
$19.99
52k reviews
Mostly Positive
Open WorldHacking
Watch_Dogs® 2
2016
Est. copies
≈ 4.2M–6.8M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$57.9M–$155.7M after Steam's cut $105.3M–$239.5M before the cut
$49.99
101k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldHacking

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