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How many copies did POLARIS™ sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 2k–3k
$11k–$29k after Steam's cut $20k–$45k before the cut
from 79 reviews (Mixed)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left POLARIS™ out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including POLARIS™'s, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 290k–4.5M
best case 37.7M (HELLDIVERS™ 2)
Games like POLARIS™

The middle of these games

≈ 290k–4.5M copies

≈ $2.6M–$162.0M after Steam's cut

from ~34k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

Best case: HELLDIVERS™ 2 at ≈ 28.7M–46.7M copies, ≈ $315.9M–$849.4M after Steam's cut.

What it took to get here
About half the games that made it here had over 21k reviews in their first month; the spread ran 2k to 251k.
The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Extraction Shooter (7 of 8) and Shooter (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Third-Person Shooter + Shooter, priced around $40.
The era
4 of your 8 similar games shipped in the last two years, so this niche is actively shipping.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 36 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Eldegarde
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SteamSpy 200k–500k
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MultiplayerExtraction Shooter
Deceive Inc.
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Est. copies
≈ 195k–317k
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$1.1M–$2.9M after Steam's cut $1.9M–$4.4M before the cut
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Social DeductionHeist
The Cycle: Frontier
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≈ 1.1M–1.8M
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Extraction ShooterSurvival
The Day Before
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Est. copies
≈ 575k–934k
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23k reviews
Overwhelmingly Negative
MultiplayerZombies
HELLDIVERS™ 2
2024
Est. copies
≈ 28.7M–46.7M
34x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$315.9M–$849.4M after Steam's cut $574.4M–$1306.8M before the cut
$39.99
1.2M reviews
Mostly Positive
Online Co-OpPvE
Hunt: Showdown 1896
2019
Est. copies
≈ 8.0M–13.0M
8.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$87.8M–$236.2M after Steam's cut $159.7M–$363.4M before the cut
$39.99
277k reviews
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Open WorldExtraction Shooter
Incursion Red River
2024
Est. copies
≈ 229k–372k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$1.4M–$3.7M after Steam's cut $2.5M–$5.7M before the cut
$21.99
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Extraction ShooterRealistic
Gray Zone Warfare
2024
Est. copies
≈ 1.9M–3.2M
2.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$21.4M–$57.5M after Steam's cut $38.9M–$88.5M before the cut
$39.99
78k reviews
Mostly Positive
Early AccessOnline Co-Op

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