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How many copies did GUN™ sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 143k–232k
$785k–$2.1M after Steam's cut $1.4M–$3.2M before the cut
from 2k reviews (Very Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left GUN™ out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including GUN™'s, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.5M–4.8M
best case 34.4M (Red Dead Redemption 2)
Games like GUN™

The middle of these games

≈ 1.5M–4.8M copies

≈ $14.4M–$27.9M after Steam's cut

from ~52k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

Best case: Red Dead Redemption 2 at ≈ 26.2M–42.6M copies, ≈ $432.5M–$1162.8M after Steam's cut. A breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Open World (8 of 8) and Third-Person Shooter (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Open World + Story Rich, priced around $60. The breakout hits carry Story Rich + Realistic + Western; a typical game here doesn't.
The era
The games you compared span 2009 to 2024, and 1 of your 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Red Dead Redemption
2024
Est. copies
≈ 526k–855k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$7.2M–$19.5M after Steam's cut $13.2M–$29.9M before the cut
$49.99
21k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldWestern
Red Dead Online
2020
Est. copies
≈ 1.7M–2.8M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$9.5M–$25.4M after Steam's cut $17.2M–$39.1M before the cut
$19.99
69k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldMultiplayer
Red Dead Redemption 2
2019
Est. copies
≈ 26.2M–42.6M
17x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$432.5M–$1162.8M after Steam's cut $786.3M–$1788.9M before the cut
$59.99
910k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldStory Rich
Watch_Dogs™
2014
Est. copies
≈ 2.9M–4.8M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$16.1M–$43.4M after Steam's cut $29.4M–$66.8M before the cut
$19.99
52k reviews
Mostly Positive
Open WorldHacking
Just Cause 4 Reloaded
2018
Est. copies
≈ 980k–1.6M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
32k reviews
Mixed
Open WorldAction
Saints Row 2
2009
Est. copies
≈ 1.4M–2.2M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$3.8M–$10.1M after Steam's cut $6.8M–$15.6M before the cut
$9.99
22k reviews
Mostly Positive
Open WorldAction
Saints Row: The Third
2011
Est. copies
≈ 4.4M–7.2M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$12.1M–$32.5M after Steam's cut $22.0M–$50.0M before the cut
$9.99
70k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Open WorldAction
Just Cause™ 3
2015
Est. copies
≈ 6.2M–10.1M
2.4x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$34.3M–$92.2M after Steam's cut $62.4M–$141.9M before the cut
$19.99
128k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldAction

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