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How big is 404Sight?

Estimated owners
≈ 87k–141k
from 2k reviews (Very Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left 404Sight out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including 404Sight's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 2.1M–5.7M
best case 12.4M (Human Fall Flat)
Games like 404Sight

The middle of these games

≈ 2.1M–5.7M copies

≈ $12.3M–$33.4M after Steam's cut

from ~59k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of your similar games. The closest is Platformer (4 of 8), so the genre you lead with is still undecided.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Human Fall Flat at ≈ 9.4M–15.3M copies, ≈ $51.8M–$139.3M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Platformer (4 of 8) and First-Person (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Co-op + Puzzle, priced around $20.
The era
The games you compared span 2013 to 2019, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 36 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Getting Over It with Bennett Foddy
2017
Est. copies
≈ 2.8M–4.6M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$6.2M–$16.7M after Steam's cut $11.3M–$25.8M before the cut
$7.99
82k reviews
Very Positive
BONEWORKS
2019
Est. copies
≈ 1.0M–1.7M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$8.7M–$23.3M after Steam's cut $15.7M–$35.8M before the cut
$29.99
36k reviews
Very Positive
VRPhysics
SpeedRunners
2016
Est. copies
≈ 1.5M–2.5M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$6.4M–$17.1M after Steam's cut $11.6M–$26.4M before the cut
$14.99
37k reviews
Very Positive
MultiplayerRacing
Human Fall Flat
2016
Est. copies
≈ 9.4M–15.3M
3.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$51.8M–$139.3M after Steam's cut $94.2M–$214.2M before the cut
$19.99
226k reviews
Very Positive
Co-opFunny
Ultimate Chicken Horse
2016
Est. copies
≈ 2.2M–3.6M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$9.2M–$24.6M after Steam's cut $16.7M–$37.9M before the cut
$14.99
53k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
MultiplayerParty
Outlast 2
2017
Est. copies
≈ 2.2M–3.6M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$12.2M–$32.7M after Steam's cut $22.1M–$50.3M before the cut
$19.99
64k reviews
Very Positive
Outlast
2013
Est. copies
≈ 8.7M–14.2M
2.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$36.0M–$96.9M after Steam's cut $65.5M–$149.1M before the cut
$14.99
138k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
HorrorFirst-Person
A Story About My Uncle
2014
Est. copies
≈ 1.6M–2.7M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$6.8M–$18.1M after Steam's cut $12.3M–$27.9M before the cut
$14.99
29k reviews
Very Positive
AdventureFirst-Person

Sizing up your own game? See what its genre can realistically do before you build it.