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wishvane

How many copies did Black Mesa sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 3.6M–5.8M
$19.7M–$53.0M after Steam's cut $35.8M–$81.5M before the cut
from 145k reviews (Very Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Black Mesa out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Black Mesa's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.7M–7.1M
best case 12.1M (DOOM)
Games like Black Mesa

The middle of these games

≈ 1.7M–7.1M copies

≈ $19.7M–$63.0M after Steam's cut

from ~47k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

Best case: DOOM at ≈ 9.2M–15.0M copies, ≈ $50.6M–$136.0M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on First-Person (7 of 8) and FPS (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with FPS + Gore, priced around $20.
The era
The games you compared span 2010 to 2016, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 52 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

BioShock™ 2 Remastered
2016
Est. copies
≈ 1.3M–2.0M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$6.9M–$18.5M after Steam's cut $12.5M–$28.5M before the cut
$19.99
30k reviews
Mostly Positive
FPSAction
BioShock™ Remastered
2016
Est. copies
≈ 2.7M–4.4M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$14.8M–$39.8M after Steam's cut $26.9M–$61.3M before the cut
$19.99
65k reviews
Very Positive
Metro: Last Light Redux
2014
Est. copies
≈ 4.6M–7.4M
1.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$25.0M–$67.3M after Steam's cut $45.5M–$103.5M before the cut
$19.99
81k reviews
Very Positive
Post-apocalypticFPS
Metro 2033 Redux
2014
Est. copies
≈ 7.9M–12.8M
3.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$43.3M–$116.4M after Steam's cut $78.7M–$179.1M before the cut
$19.99
141k reviews
Very Positive
Post-apocalypticFPS
Thief
2014
Est. copies
≈ 1.3M–2.2M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$7.4M–$19.9M after Steam's cut $13.4M–$30.6M before the cut
$19.99
24k reviews
Mostly Positive
StealthAction
Shadow Warrior
2013
Est. copies
≈ 1.7M–2.7M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$13.9M–$37.4M after Steam's cut $25.3M–$57.6M before the cut
$29.99
27k reviews
Very Positive
ActionFPS
Need For Speed: Hot Pursuit
2010
Est. copies
≈ 1.3M–2.1M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
20k reviews
Very Positive
RacingCombat Racing
DOOM
2016
Est. copies
≈ 9.2M–15.0M
4.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$50.6M–$136.0M after Steam's cut $92.0M–$209.3M before the cut
$19.99
221k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
FPSGore

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