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How many copies did Dragon Rider sell?

Too new to estimate
Games in its genre land ≈ 155–2k That is what its genre does, not a prediction for this game.
No reviews yet, so there is nothing to estimate from. That is not the same as selling nothing.
Does this actually work?

We left Dragon Rider out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Dragon Rider's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 155–2k
best case 11k (SACRALITH : The Archer`s Tale)
Games like Dragon Rider

The middle of these games

≈ 155–2k copies

≈ $370–$3k after Steam's cut

from ~16 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

None of your 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: SACRALITH : The Archer`s Tale at ≈ 8k–13k copies, ≈ $44k–$119k after Steam's cut.

What it took to get here
About half the games that made it here had over 3 reviews in their first month; the spread ran 1 to 20.
Under about 100 in month one, almost nothing recovers.
The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Simulation (7 of 8) and VR (7 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with VR + Simulation, priced around $20.
The era
The games you compared span 2017 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 43 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Xpraize Beta
2022
Est. copies
≈ 25–40
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$103–$273 after Steam's cut $187–$420 before the cut
$14.99
1 reviews
1 user reviews
RPGVR
Beast Pets
2019
Est. copies
≈ 605–983
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$2k–$4k after Steam's cut $3k–$7k before the cut
$9.99
21 reviews
Positive
CasualSimulation
Dragonflight
2017
Est. copies
≈ 5k–7k
8.4x vs typical
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
Free
Free
134 reviews
Mixed
IndieAction
SACRALITH : The Archer`s Tale
2018
Est. copies
≈ 8k–13k
17x vs typical
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$44k–$119k after Steam's cut $80k–$182k before the cut
$19.99
264 reviews
Very Positive
VRAction
Komodo 3K Arena
2023
Est. copies
≈ 25–40
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$48–$127 after Steam's cut $87–$196 before the cut
$6.99
1 reviews
1 user reviews
ActionSimulation
Mythlands: Dragon Flight VR
2022
Est. copies
≈ 273–443
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$300–$804 after Steam's cut $545–$1k before the cut
$3.99
11 reviews
Positive
SimulationDragons
No King No Kingdom VR
2020
Est. copies
≈ 719–1k
1.8x vs typical
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$2k–$5k after Steam's cut $4k–$8k before the cut
$9.99
29 reviews
Mixed
ActionStrategy
Fun Christmas Santa VR
2020
Est. copies
≈ 149–242
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$409–$1k after Steam's cut $744–$2k before the cut
$9.99
6 reviews
6 user reviews
AdventureSimulation

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