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How many copies did Hot Lava sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 177k–288k
$975k–$2.6M after Steam's cut $1.8M–$4.0M before the cut
from 6k reviews (Very Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Hot Lava out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Hot Lava's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 98k–239k
best case 673k (Neon White)
Games like Hot Lava

The middle of these games

≈ 98k–239k copies

≈ $169k–$2.0M after Steam's cut

from ~4k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

Best case: Neon White at ≈ 513k–833k copies, ≈ $3.5M–$9.5M after Steam's cut.

What it took to get here
About half the games that made it here had over 1k reviews in their first month; the spread ran 149 to 4k.
The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on 3D Platformer (7 of 8) and Parkour (7 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with FPS + 3D Platformer, priced around $25.
The era
The games you compared span 2014 to 2025, and 1 of your 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Neon White
2022
Est. copies
≈ 513k–833k
5.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$3.5M–$9.5M after Steam's cut $6.4M–$14.6M before the cut
$24.99
21k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
FPS3D Platformer
White Knuckle
2025
Est. copies
≈ 347k–565k
3.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$1.6M–$4.4M after Steam's cut $3.0M–$6.7M before the cut
$16.99
14k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Early AccessParkour
SEUM: Speedrunners from Hell
2016
Est. copies
≈ 127k–207k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$525k–$1.4M after Steam's cut $954k–$2.2M before the cut
$14.99
3k reviews
Very Positive
3D PlatformerParkour
*NEW* SCUFFED EPIC BHOP SIMULATOR 2023 (POG CHAMP)
2020
Est. copies
≈ 116k–189k
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
Free
Free
5k reviews
Very Positive
CasualAction
BETON BRUTAL
2023
Est. copies
≈ 32k–52k
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$62k–$166k after Steam's cut $112k–$255k before the cut
$6.99
1k reviews
Very Positive
3D PlatformerPrecision Platformer
Boson X
2014
Est. copies
≈ 89k–144k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$122k–$327k after Steam's cut $221k–$503k before the cut
$4.99
2k reviews
Very Positive
DifficultAction
Cyber Hook
2020
Est. copies
≈ 104k–169k
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$428k–$1.2M after Steam's cut $778k–$1.8M before the cut
$14.99
4k reviews
Very Positive
Indie3D Platformer
PANZER BALL
2020
Est. copies
≈ 30k–49k
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$41k–$111k after Steam's cut $75k–$171k before the cut
$4.99
1k reviews
Very Positive
IndieParkour

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