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How many copies did The Outer Worlds sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 702k–1.1M
from 28k reviews (Very Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left The Outer Worlds out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including The Outer Worlds's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 5.8M–14.5M
best case 27.4M (Fallout 4)
Games like The Outer Worlds

The middle of these games

≈ 5.8M–14.5M copies

≈ $96.8M–$192.8M after Steam's cut

from ~181k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

Best case: Fallout 4 at ≈ 20.9M–34.0M copies, ≈ $114.9M–$308.8M after Steam's cut.

What it took to get here
About half the games that made it here had over 93k reviews in their first month; the spread ran 25k to 171k.
The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Open World (8 of 8) and Exploration (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Open World + Post-apocalyptic, priced around $20.
The era
The games you compared span 2010 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Fallout 4
2015
Est. copies
≈ 20.9M–34.0M
2.4x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$114.9M–$308.8M after Steam's cut $208.9M–$475.1M before the cut
$19.99
428k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldPost-apocalyptic
Fallout: New Vegas
2010
Est. copies
≈ 16.5M–26.8M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$45.3M–$121.9M after Steam's cut $82.5M–$187.6M before the cut
$9.99
261k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Open WorldRPG
Hogwarts Legacy
2023
Est. copies
≈ 9.2M–15.0M
2.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$152.1M–$408.9M after Steam's cut $276.5M–$629.1M before the cut
$59.99
372k reviews
Very Positive
MagicOpen World
The Elder Scrolls® Online
2017
Est. copies
≈ 5.6M–9.0M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$30.5M–$82.1M after Steam's cut $55.5M–$126.2M before the cut
$19.99
161k reviews
Very Positive
RPGMMORPG
Assassin's Creed® Odyssey
2018
Est. copies
≈ 5.7M–9.3M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$94.2M–$253.2M after Steam's cut $171.3M–$389.6M before the cut
$59.99
188k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldRPG
Horizon Zero Dawn™ Complete Edition
2020
Est. copies
≈ 3.2M–5.2M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
128k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldAdventure
Assassin's Creed® Origins
2017
Est. copies
≈ 4.4M–7.2M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$72.9M–$196.0M after Steam's cut $132.6M–$301.6M before the cut
$59.99
128k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldAssassin
Starfield
2023
Est. copies
≈ 4.3M–7.1M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$59.7M–$160.4M after Steam's cut $108.5M–$246.8M before the cut
$49.99
175k reviews
Mixed
SpaceSingleplayer

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