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How many copies did Material Girl sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 304k–495k
from 9k reviews (Very Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Material Girl out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Material Girl's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 4.6M–8.9M
best case 40.4M (Wallpaper Engine)
Games like Material Girl

The middle of these games

≈ 4.6M–8.9M copies

≈ $7.2M–$52.2M after Steam's cut

from ~141k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of your similar games. The closest is Anime (4 of 8), so the genre you lead with is still undecided.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Wallpaper Engine at ≈ 30.8M–50.0M copies, ≈ $42.2M–$113.5M after Steam's cut. A breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What it took to get here
About half the games that made it here had over 33k reviews in their first month; the spread ran 21k to 326k.
The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Anime (4 of 8) and Mature (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Mature + Utilities, priced around $32. The breakout hits carry Design & Illustration + Animation & Modeling + Cyberpunk; a typical game here doesn't.
The era
None of the games you compared shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2021. That says more about your picks than about the market, so add newer similar games to read the timing.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 43 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

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≈ 3.2M–5.2M
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Wallpaper Engine
2018
Est. copies
≈ 30.8M–50.0M
7.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
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$42.2M–$113.5M after Steam's cut $76.8M–$174.6M before the cut
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MatureUtilities
Muse Dash
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Est. copies
≈ 3.5M–5.7M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$2.9M–$7.8M after Steam's cut $5.3M–$12.0M before the cut
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122k reviews
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MusicRhythm
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2017
Est. copies
≈ 3.6M–5.8M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
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$4.9M–$13.2M after Steam's cut $8.9M–$20.3M before the cut
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NARAKA: BLADEPOINT
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≈ 7.5M–12.2M
2.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
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Battle RoyaleMultiplayer
DARK SOULS™: REMASTERED
2018
Est. copies
≈ 4.7M–7.6M
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$51.7M–$139.1M after Steam's cut $94.0M–$213.9M before the cut
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155k reviews
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Souls-likeDark Fantasy
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2020
Est. copies
≈ 24.2M–39.3M
6.9x vs typical
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$399.0M–$1072.8M after Steam's cut $725.5M–$1650.4M before the cut
$59.99
975k reviews
Very Positive
CyberpunkOpen World

Sizing up your own game? See what its genre can realistically do before you build it.