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How many copies did Potion Craft: Alchemist Simulator sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 1.1M–1.8M
$6.1M–$16.3M after Steam's cut $11.0M–$25.1M before the cut
from 45k reviews (Very Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Potion Craft: Alchemist Simulator out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Potion Craft: Alchemist Simulator's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.7M–6.0M
best case 56.5M (Stardew Valley)
Games like Potion Craft: Alchemist Simulator

The middle of these games

≈ 1.7M–6.0M copies

≈ $19.4M–$39.0M after Steam's cut

from ~90k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of your similar games. The closest is Simulation (4 of 8), so the genre you lead with is still undecided.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Stardew Valley at ≈ 43.0M–69.9M copies, ≈ $177.4M–$476.9M after Steam's cut. A breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What it took to get here
About half the games that made it here had over 21k reviews in their first month; the spread ran 20k to 43k.
The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Simulation (4 of 8) and Crafting (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Farming Sim + Life Sim, priced around $15. The breakout hits carry Agriculture + Farming Sim + Life Sim; a typical game here doesn't.
The era
The games you compared span 2016 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 52 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

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≈ 4.0M–6.5M
1.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
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theHunter: Call of the Wild™
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≈ 7.0M–11.3M
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HuntingOpen World
Kingdoms and Castles
2017
Est. copies
≈ 1.1M–1.8M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$5.9M–$16.0M after Steam's cut $10.8M–$24.6M before the cut
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Starbound
2016
Est. copies
≈ 5.1M–8.3M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$21.1M–$56.8M after Steam's cut $38.4M–$87.4M before the cut
$14.99
123k reviews
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Open World Survival CraftSandbox
Stardew Valley
2016
Est. copies
≈ 43.0M–69.9M
11x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$177.4M–$476.9M after Steam's cut $322.5M–$733.6M before the cut
$14.99
1.0M reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Farming SimPixel Graphics
Russian Fishing 4
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≈ 2.2M–3.6M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
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Free
Free
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FishingMultiplayer
Medieval Dynasty
2021
Est. copies
≈ 1.3M–2.1M
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$12.4M–$33.4M after Steam's cut $22.6M–$51.4M before the cut
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CraftingBuilding
My Time at Portia
2019
Est. copies
≈ 1.3M–2.1M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$10.5M–$28.3M after Steam's cut $19.1M–$43.5M before the cut
$29.99
44k reviews
Very Positive
Life SimRPG

Sizing up your own game? See what its genre can realistically do before you build it.