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How many copies did Kainga: Seeds of Civilization sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 19k–31k
$104k–$280k after Steam's cut $190k–$431k before the cut
from 765 reviews (Mostly Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Kainga: Seeds of Civilization out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Kainga: Seeds of Civilization's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.2M–2.3M
best case 1.9M (The Henry Stickmin Collection)
Games like Kainga: Seeds of Civilization

The middle of these games

≈ 1.2M–2.3M copies

≈ $6.6M–$14.8M after Steam's cut

from ~31k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of your similar games. The closest is Comedy (4 of 8), so the genre you lead with is still undecided.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: The Henry Stickmin Collection at ≈ 1.5M–2.4M copies, ≈ $6.1M–$16.3M after Steam's cut.

What it took to get here
About half the games that made it here had over 10k reviews in their first month; the spread ran 3k to 15k.
The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Comedy (4 of 8) and FPS (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Multiple Endings + Choose Your Own Adventure, priced around $15.
The era
The games you compared span 2007 to 2021, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Firework
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Est. copies
≈ 1.1M–1.8M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$3.0M–$8.1M after Steam's cut $5.5M–$12.5M before the cut
$9.99
44k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
HorrorIndie
The Henry Stickmin Collection
2020
Est. copies
≈ 1.5M–2.4M
1.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$6.1M–$16.3M after Steam's cut $11.0M–$25.1M before the cut
$14.99
59k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
FunnyMultiple Endings
Serious Sam 3: BFE
2011
Est. copies
≈ 1.8M–2.9M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$14.9M–$40.2M after Steam's cut $27.2M–$61.8M before the cut
$29.99
29k reviews
Very Positive
FPSAction
Loop Hero
2021
Est. copies
≈ 905k–1.5M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$3.7M–$10.0M after Steam's cut $6.8M–$15.4M before the cut
$14.99
37k reviews
Very Positive
TacticalRogue-like
DUSK
2018
Est. copies
≈ 774k–1.3M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$4.3M–$11.4M after Steam's cut $7.7M–$17.6M before the cut
$19.99
25k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Boomer ShooterFPS
Shadow Warrior
2013
Est. copies
≈ 1.7M–2.7M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$13.9M–$37.4M after Steam's cut $25.3M–$57.6M before the cut
$29.99
27k reviews
Very Positive
ActionFPS
DOOM + DOOM II
2007
Est. copies
≈ 1.8M–3.0M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$5.0M–$13.5M after Steam's cut $9.1M–$20.8M before the cut
$9.99
29k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
FPSClassic
Touhou Mystia's Izakaya
2021
Est. copies
≈ 810k–1.3M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.3M–$3.6M after Steam's cut $2.4M–$5.5M before the cut
$5.99
33k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Pixel GraphicsCasual

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