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How big is Kill It With Fire: HEATWAVE?

Estimated owners
≈ 54k–87k
from 2k reviews (Very Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Kill It With Fire: HEATWAVE out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Kill It With Fire: HEATWAVE's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 12.2M–24.7M
best case 104.7M (Garry's Mod)
Games like Kill It With Fire: HEATWAVE

The middle of these games

≈ 12.2M–24.7M copies

≈ $95.5M–$216.6M after Steam's cut

from ~305k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

Best case: Garry's Mod at ≈ 79.8M–129.6M copies, ≈ $219.1M–$589.2M after Steam's cut. A breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Sandbox (5 of 8) and Physics (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with First-Person, priced around $7. The breakout hits carry First-Person + Mature + Utilities; a typical game here doesn't.
The era
The games you compared span 2006 to 2019, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 36 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Wallpaper Engine
2018
Est. copies
≈ 30.8M–50.0M
3.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$42.2M–$113.5M after Steam's cut $76.8M–$174.6M before the cut
$4.99
1.0M reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
MatureUtilities
Garry's Mod
2006
Est. copies
≈ 79.8M–129.6M
4.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$219.1M–$589.2M after Steam's cut $398.4M–$906.5M before the cut
$9.99
1.3M reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
SandboxModdable
Don't Starve Together
2016
Est. copies
≈ 22.6M–36.7M
1.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$93.0M–$250.0M after Steam's cut $169.0M–$384.6M before the cut
$14.99
542k reviews
Very Positive
SurvivalOpen World Survival Craft
Human Fall Flat
2016
Est. copies
≈ 9.4M–15.3M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$51.8M–$139.3M after Steam's cut $94.2M–$214.2M before the cut
$19.99
226k reviews
Very Positive
Co-opFunny
People Playground
2019
Est. copies
≈ 9.1M–14.9M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$25.1M–$67.5M after Steam's cut $45.7M–$103.9M before the cut
$9.99
317k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
SandboxGore
BeamNG.drive
2015
Est. copies
≈ 20.3M–33.0M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$139.6M–$375.3M after Steam's cut $253.8M–$577.4M before the cut
$24.99
416k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
SimulationDriving
VRChat
2017
Est. copies
≈ 9.2M–15.0M
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
268k reviews
Mostly Positive
VRFree to Play
Cities: Skylines
2015
Est. copies
≈ 14.2M–23.1M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$117.4M–$315.8M after Steam's cut $213.5M–$485.8M before the cut
$29.99
292k reviews
Very Positive

Sizing up your own game? See what its genre can realistically do before you build it.