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How many copies did Dicefolk sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 27k–45k
$113k–$305k after Steam's cut $206k–$469k before the cut
from 1k reviews (Very Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Dicefolk out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Dicefolk's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 220k–452k
best case 746k (Monster Train)
Games like Dicefolk

The middle of these games

≈ 220k–452k copies

≈ $1.5M–$3.8M after Steam's cut

from ~11k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

Best case: Monster Train at ≈ 569k–924k copies, ≈ $3.9M–$10.5M after Steam's cut.

What it took to get here
About half the games that made it here had over 5k reviews in their first month; the spread ran 2k to 9k.
The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Card Game (6 of 8) and Rogue-like (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Card Battler + Rogue-lite, priced around $25.
The era
Only 2 of your 8 similar games shipped in the last two years. That says more about your picks than about the market, so add newer similar games to read the timing.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate of about 31, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Across the Obelisk
2022
Est. copies
≈ 325k–527k
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$1.8M–$4.8M after Steam's cut $3.2M–$7.4M before the cut
$19.99
13k reviews
Very Positive
Rogue-likeStrategy
Monster Train
2020
Est. copies
≈ 569k–924k
2.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$3.9M–$10.5M after Steam's cut $7.1M–$16.2M before the cut
$24.99
23k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Card BattlerRogue-lite
Chrono Ark
2024
Est. copies
≈ 340k–553k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$2.3M–$6.3M after Steam's cut $4.2M–$9.7M before the cut
$24.99
14k reviews
Very Positive
Shogun Showdown
2024
Est. copies
≈ 174k–282k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$716k–$1.9M after Steam's cut $1.3M–$3.0M before the cut
$14.99
7k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Replay ValueStrategy RPG
Griftlands
2021
Est. copies
≈ 359k–583k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$2.0M–$5.3M after Steam's cut $3.6M–$8.2M before the cut
$19.99
14k reviews
Very Positive
Card BattlerRogue-lite
Astrea: Six-Sided Oracles
2023
Est. copies
≈ 112k–182k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$769k–$2.1M after Steam's cut $1.4M–$3.2M before the cut
$24.99
5k reviews
Very Positive
Gordian Quest
2022
Est. copies
≈ 149k–243k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$821k–$2.2M after Steam's cut $1.5M–$3.4M before the cut
$19.99
6k reviews
Very Positive
RPGCard Game
Backpack Hero
2023
Est. copies
≈ 211k–342k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.2M–$3.1M after Steam's cut $2.1M–$4.8M before the cut
$19.99
8k reviews
Very Positive
Replay ValueTurn-Based

Sizing up your own game? See what its genre can realistically do before you build it.