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How many copies did Heretic: Shadow of the Serpent Riders sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 74k–120k
from 1k reviews (Very Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Heretic: Shadow of the Serpent Riders out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Heretic: Shadow of the Serpent Riders's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 241k–319k
best case 978k (Dark Messiah of Might & Magic)
Games like Heretic: Shadow of the Serpent Riders

The middle of these games

≈ 241k–319k copies

≈ $843k–$2.2M after Steam's cut

from ~4k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

7 of your 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Dark Messiah of Might & Magic at ≈ 745k–1.2M copies, ≈ $2.0M–$5.5M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on First-Person (6 of 8) and Classic (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with First-Person + Fantasy, priced around $10.
The era
The games you compared span 2006 to 2019, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 36 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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1.8x vs typical
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Old SchoolBoomer Shooter
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ActionSurreal
Dark Messiah of Might & Magic
2006
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too small to compare
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$9.99
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Very Positive
RPGFirst-Person
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$19.99
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ActionDinosaurs
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2007
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StealthAtmospheric
Thief II: The Metal Age
2012
Est. copies
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StealthClassic
Dark Messiah of Might & Magic
2006
Est. copies
≈ 745k–1.2M
2.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
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$2.0M–$5.5M after Steam's cut $3.7M–$8.5M before the cut
$9.99
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Very Positive
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$6.99
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StealthClassic

Sizing up your own game? See what its genre can realistically do before you build it.