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How many copies did Thief Simulator 2 sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 167k–271k
$915k–$2.5M after Steam's cut $1.7M–$3.8M before the cut
from 7k reviews (Very Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Thief Simulator 2 out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Thief Simulator 2's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.0M–5.1M
best case 55.9M (PAYDAY 2)
Games like Thief Simulator 2

The middle of these games

≈ 1.0M–5.1M copies

≈ $4.5M–$29.6M after Steam's cut

from ~37k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of your similar games. The closest is Crime (4 of 8), so the genre you lead with is still undecided.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: PAYDAY 2 at ≈ 42.6M–69.2M copies, ≈ $117.1M–$314.7M after Steam's cut.

What it took to get here
About half the games that made it here had over 7k reviews in their first month; the spread ran 2k to 153k.
The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Crime (4 of 8) and Co-op (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Co-op + FPS, priced around $10.
The era
The games you compared span 2007 to 2025, and 2 of your 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Schedule I
2025
Est. copies
≈ 7.8M–12.7M
8.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$42.9M–$115.2M after Steam's cut $77.9M–$177.3M before the cut
$19.99
314k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Due Process
2020
Est. copies
≈ 212k–344k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$582k–$1.6M after Steam's cut $1.1M–$2.4M before the cut
$9.99
9k reviews
Very Positive
Early AccessAdventure
PAYDAY 2
2013
Est. copies
≈ 42.6M–69.2M
18x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$117.1M–$314.7M after Steam's cut $212.8M–$484.2M before the cut
$9.99
674k reviews
Very Positive
Co-opAction
Crime Scene Cleaner
2024
Est. copies
≈ 846k–1.4M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$7.0M–$18.8M after Steam's cut $12.7M–$28.9M before the cut
$29.99
34k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
SimulationCrime
NEKOPARA Vol. 2
2016
Est. copies
≈ 535k–869k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.5M–$3.9M after Steam's cut $2.7M–$6.1M before the cut
$9.99
13k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
AnimeSexual Content
Thief Simulator
2018
Est. copies
≈ 1.2M–2.0M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$6.6M–$17.8M after Steam's cut $12.0M–$27.4M before the cut
$19.99
40k reviews
Very Positive
PAYDAY™ The Heist
2011
Est. copies
≈ 2.6M–4.2M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$7.1M–$19.1M after Steam's cut $12.9M–$29.4M before the cut
$9.99
41k reviews
Very Positive
FPSAction
Hitman: Blood Money
2007
Est. copies
≈ 1.0M–1.7M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$2.8M–$7.5M after Steam's cut $5.1M–$11.5M before the cut
$9.99
16k reviews
Very Positive
StealthAction

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